The Odds

[Fred588]

You don't get this kind of stuff on ESPN.

No, you don't. You get "experts" who can, right off the top of their heads, predict the bracket and get around half of their predictions right.

I will predict that, in every case, the team who "mascot" name is alphabetically first will win every game in the tournament. Further, I predict that I will be right about half the time.

I've been tossing a quarter and I think you're right. I was once told that 50% of all statisticians finish in the bottom half of their class. Those must be the group that television hires from.

Of course, if you refer to the statistics class, 50 percent also finish in the top half. And slightly more than 68 percent would finish within one standard deviation of the mean, IF statisticians were normally distributed. But everyone knows that statisticians are not normal.

[Duncan Edwards]

... But everyone knows that statisticians are not normal.

They are all slightly above average.

[Chimerix]

Actually it fits in really well, cosmologically. Two raised to the 68th power is not too far off from the estimated number of elementary particles in the universe. According to this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observable_universe

the number of hydrogen atoms in the entire universe is 10 to the 50th

Ah, but the flaw in your logic is that the starting number is not 2^68. The initial pairings are defined. IF Fred is correct and there are 68 teams, there are only 34 initial matches, and half that for each subsequent match. We're not talking about the number of hydrogen atoms in the universe, we're talking about the number of blondes in the history of mankind. Still an impressive number, but hardly outside the realm of possibility that you could submit each iteration on an entry form. With automation, of course.

[Fred588]

The 68 comes from the number of games. The number should actually be 67 if only the elimination games count. If consolation games also are included then the number is higher by that number of games. I have not followed college basketball for a long time (viewing having to attend a game as slightly preferable to having the flu) so I don't know if they even have consolation games.

Actually it fits in really well, cosmologically. Two raised to the 68th power is not too far off from the estimated number of elementary particles in the universe. According to this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observable_universe

the number of hydrogen atoms in the entire universe is 10 to the 50th

Ah, but the flaw in your logic is that the starting number is not 2^68. The initial pairings are defined. IF Fred is correct and there are 68 teams, there are only 34 initial matches, and half that for each subsequent match. We're not talking about the number of hydrogen atoms in the universe, we're talking about the number of blondes in the history of mankind. Still an impressive number, but hardly outside the realm of possibility that you could submit each iteration on an entry form. With automation, of course.